Theme Id Lecture: "Mobility transition or just a powertrain shift?“ (17.07.2025)
Contents of this page:
- Brief description
- Aims of the theme
- Public reports on the presentation
- The presentation
- Diagrams from the presentation
- Diagrams of economic efficiency
- The individual tables of the diagrams
1. Brief description
Germany and the EU want to become climate-neutral by 2045.
But is it enough to just change the drive of our vehicles?
Or do we need a real mobility transition – one that also takes into account land use, safety (Vision Zero), accessibility and quality of life?
To this end, three possible solutions were developed and compared with each other:
- Complete replacement of all vehicles with new electric vehicles by 2045
- Retrofitting of existing combustion engines with electric motors, extension of the service life to approx. 50 years
- System change: Combination of retrofitting, proportionate new car fleet and a new transport system on a second level with ropeway/rail technology.
2. Aims of the theme
For each of the three solutions, the following aspects were calculated:
- Ecological footprint (CO₂ and material consumption)
- Profitability by 2060
- Benefits for people, society and the climate
Many figures come from publicly available sources, others were estimated on the basis of technical comparisons.
- Solutions 1 and 2 correspond to a "drive turnaround"
- Solution 3 stands for a real "mobility transition".
3. Public reports on the presentation
A newspaper report on the first lecture on 17.07.2025
The first newspaper report on the presentation Mobility transition or just a power trainshift? (in German)
4. The lecture
5. Diagrams and pictures from the lecture
5.1 Car free road?
The car-free street with a ropeway rail system at a height of 4 meters.
How do we see our streets in the future? Like a dream that we admire in many cities when car-free streets are created there. But not here?
It gets difficult here when it happens outside your own front door or window. Would you rather have cars on the street?
5.2 Consumption data for solutions L1, L2 and L3
A summary of the consumption and performance data of the 3 solutions.
5.3 Diagram of consumption data L1, L2 and L3
A summary of the consumption data for the three solutions. The details are shown for solution 3, as much more data is included here.
This shows that solution 3 is more ecological despite a new infrastructure, as much less CO2 and material is consumed over the years.
6. Diagrams of economic efficiency
It is surprising, but despite the new infrastructure, this ropeway system is already in the black after 10 years and after 25 years, i.e. 2049, the loans will be paid off, with a system of approx. 40,000 km in length. Further expansion will then improve the figures considerably. Although an additional 1,000 km of ropeway are built each year.
JM 07.08.2025
This compilation reveals what is being displaced in today's transportation system and accounted for in other areas. So we are not being completely honest about the costs here.
7. The individual tables of the diagrams
7.1 System comparison, CO2 and material, of solutions L1, L2 and L3
Individual tables were created for the calculation of the three solutions.
The diagrams in the lecture are derived from these. The corresponding formulas are inserted in the header of the tables.
Everyone can understand the values and draw their own conclusions.
Solution 1
from 2025 - 2045
Solution 2
Solution 3
from 2025 - 2060
7.2 Economic efficiency calculation of solution L3
7.3 The calculation data
For the calculations, the following data is assumed as the basis for the profitability calculation in total for 2026 - 2060
in EUR:
1. construction of 1 km of ropeway (plus 2% increase per year) EUR 4 million
2. maintenance costs (plus 2% increase per year) EUR 500 per km per year
3. IT costs from 2026 5 million, from 2027 10 million, from 2037 7 million 270 million
4. accident costs (32 bn per year) from 1% in 2027 to 40% in 2060 268 bn
5. environmental damage 50 % accident costs 134 bn.
6. vehicle tax (9.4 bn) from 5% in 2028 to 40% in 2060 65 bn
7. congestion costs (3.2 bn) pro rata from 1% in 2032 to 40% in 2060 6.6 bn
8. road construction costs (100.000 EUR per km per year) pro rata 26.2 bn
If you find any errors, we are grateful for any advice.