Theme Id Lecture: "Mobility transition or just a powertrain shift?“ (17.07.2025)


Contents of this page:

 

  1. Brief description

  2. Aims of the theme

  3. The lecture
  4. Diagrams and pictures from the lecture

  5. Tables for the calculations

JM 24.07.2025


1. Brief description

Germany and the EU want to become climate-neutral by 2045.

But is it enough to just change the drive of our vehicles?

Or do we need a real mobility transition – one that also takes into account land use, safety (Vision Zero), accessibility and quality of life?

 

To this end, three possible solutions were developed and compared with each other: 

  1. Complete replacement of all vehicles with new electric vehicles by 2045
  2. Retrofitting of existing combustion engines with electric motors, extension of the service life to approx. 50 years
  3. System change: Combination of retrofitting, proportionate new car fleet and a new transport system on a second level with ropeway/rail technology.

2. Aims of the theme

For each of the three solutions, the following aspects were calculated:

 

  • Ecological footprint (CO₂ and material consumption)
  • Profitability by 2060
  • Benefits for people, society and the climate

Many figures come from publicly available sources, others were estimated on the basis of technical comparisons.

 

- Solutions 1 and 2 correspond to a "drive turnaround"

- Solution 3 stands for a real "mobility transition".

 


3. The lecture

Download
"Mobility transition or just a powertrain shift?“
Comparison of all three solutions for climate-neutral mobility.
Verkehrswende - Antriebswende V02 en.pdf
Adobe Acrobat Dokument 2.1 MB

4. Diagrams and pictures from the lecture

4.1 Car free road?

The car-free street with a ropeway rail system at a height of 4 meters.

How do we see our streets in the future? Like a dream that we admire in many cities when car-free streets are created there. But not here?

It gets difficult here when it happens outside your own front door or window. Would you rather have cars on the street?


4.2 Consumption data for solutions L1, L2 and L3

A summary of the consumption and performance data of the 3 solutions.


4.3 Diagram of consumption data L1, L2 and L3

 A summary of the consumption data for the three solutions. The details are shown for solution 3, as much more data is included here.

This shows that solution 3 is more ecological despite a new infrastructure, as much less CO2 and material is consumed over the years.



5.  Tables for the calculations

5.1 System comparison, CO2 and material, of solutions L1, L2 and L3

Individual tables were created for the calculation of the three solutions.

The diagrams in the lecture are derived from these. The corresponding formulas are inserted in the header of the tables.

Everyone can understand the values and draw their own conclusions.

Solution 1

Download
Conversion to new electric vehicles
1st solution: New electric vehiclesCalculation for the conversion of all combustion engines
from 2025 - 2045
Verkehrswende - Antriebswende Berechnung
Adobe Acrobat Dokument 444.8 KB

Solution 2

Download
Retrofitting existing vehicles + new vehicles
2. Solution Retrofitting of existing vehiclesCalculations for retrofitting + new car share, service life 50 years, from 2025 - 2060
Verkehrswende - Antriebswende Berechnung
Adobe Acrobat Dokument 461.5 KB

Solution 3

Download
Conversion L1 + L2 + cable car technology
3rd solutionCalculations for retrofitting + new vehicles + cable car/rails + urban redevelopment
from 2025 - 2060
Verkehrswende - Antriebswende Berechnung
Adobe Acrobat Dokument 1.0 MB


5.2 Economic efficiency calculation of solution L3

Download
Cost-effectiveness of ropeway/rail system
Calculations of the investment and entry potential from 2025 - 2060
Verkehrswende - Antriebswende Berechnung
Adobe Acrobat Dokument 596.0 KB

5.3 Diagram of the profitability calculation

It is surprising, but despite the new infrastructure, this ropeway-rail system is already economical after 10 years, with a system of around 40,000 km in length. Further expansion will then improve the figures considerably.



5.4 The calculation data

For the calculations, the following data is assumed as the basis for the profitability calculation in total for 2026 - 2060:

in EUR

 

1. construction of 1 km of ropeway (plus 2% increase per year)                                                    EUR 4 million

2. maintenance costs (plus 2% increase per year)                                                                            EUR 500 per km per year

3.IT costs from 2026 5 million, from 2027 10 million, from 2037 7 million                                       270 million

4. accident costs (32 bn per year) from 1% in 2027 to 40% in 2060                                                       268 bn

5.environmental damage 50 % accident costs                                                                                           134 bn.

6. vehicle tax (9.4 bn) from 5% in 2028 to 40% in 2060                                                                               65 bn

7.congestion costs (3.2 bn) pro rata from 1% in 2032 to 40% in 2060                                                        6.6 bn

8.road construction costs (100.000 EUR per km per year) pro rata                                                          26.2 bn



If you find any errors, we are grateful for any advice.