1. Brief description

2. Objectives of the topic
3. The lecture
4. Tables for the calculations

JM 09.07.2025

Germany and the EU want to become climate-neutral by 2045.

But is it enough to just change the drive of our vehicles?

Or do we need a real mobility transition – one that also takes into account land use, safety (Vision Zero), accessibility and quality of life?

To this end, three possible solutions were developed and compared with each other: 

1. Complete replacement of all vehicles with new electric vehicles by 2045
2. Retrofitting of existing combustion engines with electric motors, extension of the service life to approx. 50 years
3. System change: Combination of retrofitting, proportionate new car fleet and a new transport system on a second level with ropeway/rail technology.

For each of the three solutions, the following aspects were calculated:

• Ecological footprint (CO₂ and material consumption)
• Profitability by 2060
• Benefits for people, society and the climate

Many figures come from publicly available sources, others were estimated on the basis of technical comparisons.

- Solutions 1 and 2 correspond to a "drive turnaround"

- Solution 3 stands for a real "mobility transition".

Individual tables were created for the calculation of the three solutions.

The diagrams in the lecture are derived from these. The corresponding formulas are inserted in the header of the tables.

Everyone can understand the values and draw their own conclusions.

If you find any errors, we are grateful for any advice.